U.S. recession odds skyrocket for 2025
Beyond an avenue for making speculative bets, prediction markets can offer an additional glimpse into the prevailing sentiment surrounding a particular matter. You wouldn’t have to look particularly far to see that worries surrounding a potential recession in the United States have skyrocketed as of late. President Trump’s sudden imposition of previously-announced tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada on March 3 caused a crash in the cryptocurrency market, as well as a general selloff of risk assets. Prediction markets reacted accordingly. On March 4, two of the most popular platforms — Kalshi and Polymarket, marked a noted uptick in users who answered affirmatively to the query of whether or not a recession will occur this year. Picks for you This notorious recession signal hints at what's next for the economy ...